Hey readers. AnacondaHL here, standing in to bring you the Pacific division preview. Let's get this started.
The Golden State Warriors
Crap.
The Los Angeles Clippers
Crappy Crap.
The Los Angeles Lakers
Crappier than people will expect.
The Phoenix Suns
Less crappy than people will expect, but nevertheless, crap.
The Sacramento Kings
Crap up in this bitch.
...
...ugh, fine, I'll do this properly.
Let's try this a different way. The NBA preseason has come to a close, and without going into a discussion about how well preseason success correlates to regular season records, (oblig link 1, oblig link 2), let's take a look at how the Pacific did:
Good Lordy. To help me get through this, aside from the multiple Pacificos, I'll be posting Basketball Prospectus' SHOENE projection for each team next to my projection and their standing in the West. Also, don't ask me for the rest of the projections, go spend your $10 on this fantastic read that's well worth it.
The Golden State Warriors
So, due to alphabetic obligations, we unfortunately start with the team with the most questionable SHOENE outlook. Is there a factor in the equation that accounts for an awesome switch back to throwback uniforms?
Well if anything there's some consideration to the coach. With the loss of The winningest coach in NBA history, you'd think the Warriors would be set to repeat or worse their 26-56 2009-10 record. Of course everyone knows that I'm joking, and that Don Nelson leaving is addition via subtraction, and Keith Smart has a chance to prove himself, beyond wacky games with limited rosters.
Throw in the growth of Stephen Curry as a star, and the acquisition of David Lee, the pickup of hard worker Sweet Lou, the room for Reggie Williams and Andris Biedrins to develop (and to hopefully improve his 16.0% FT%), and Monta Ellis ready to chuck it up, and the Warriors could be a surprise team in the West playoffs. And did I mention their pickup of Jeremy Lin? He's Asian! And American! And went to Harvard! Best PR use of an Asian player on an NBA basketball team since not Yi.
Still, I just don't see this squad nearly doubling their win total. David Lee's sieve defense is notorious in the Big Apple, and yet he fits right into their "get the steal or bust" methods. If anything, they've solidified their worst-in-the-league 112.4 points surrendered per game, and may give Toronto a run for their money at worst defensive rating next season.
I'm still jealous of their uniforms though.
SHOENE says: 49-33 (4)
AHL says: 40-42 (12)
The Los Angeles Clippers
Another year looking strong on paper, another year of disappointment. Don't get hyped up on this team as always, they are fighting to stay out of the bottom of the entire West.
Well let's start with the good news. Blake Griffin is looking monsterous. Hulk-esque, if you will. (Bonus YouTube to hype up the 3 Clippers fans).
In addition, Eric Gordon's coming off a solid tournament with Team USA. Kaman is Kaman, good for solid numbers. Ryan Gomes was brought in as their utility man. And Baron Davis looks to continue his obligations to this team, while mentoring Eric Bledsoe in the ways of the beard.
And now the bad news, which we all see coming a mile away. Yes, they are the Clippers. Meaning inevitable suck, notable due to inevitable injury. Poor Blake throws himself around the court with reckless disregard, Eric Gordon already seems banged up with a sprained ankle, Baron Davis is Baron Davis (averaging ~63GP per season the past 8 seasons), and Kaman is Kaman (also ~63 GP/season his past 6). That leaves poor Ryan Gomes to hold down the fort with Rasual Butler, Randy Foye, Craig Smith, and DeAndre Jordan. Yea.
Also, Donald Sterling. Still around. Yea. 'Nuff's been said about that.
SHOENE says: 27-55 (15)
AHL says: 24-58 (15)
The Los Angeles Lakers
Our World Champion 5th ringers seem like the team to beat. They dumped Morrison while keeping their championship core, adding PG Steve Blake, SF Matt Barnes, and C Theo Ratliff. They even held onto Mr. Sasha Maria Sharapova.
So why the crappy outlook?
To put it simply: age. Projected team weighted age sits at 30.8, 3rd oldest in the league. Bynum's question marks. Kobe's finger. Artest's crazy. Everything's going downhill with this team. Going from 65 wins in 2008, to an astonishing 57 wins last season thanks to a truckload of Kobe game winners, to what this season?
Well of course the Suns fan in me can't help to expect the best out of the Lakers, and I'd love to chase them out of the postseason in Golden State over Dallas fashion. Additionally, I can see the Lakers doing something amazing for PJax before finally blowing it up. Finally, Kobe seems hungrier than ever for number 6.
But honestly they're going to have to rely on Pau much more (not necessarily a bad thing), and are really one Gasol injury away from dropping to the bottom seeds, hence BP's low outlook on their season. I'm just saying, don't be surprised if they aren't even 2nd seed come April, even in this pathetic division.
SHOENE says: 46-36 (8)
AHL says: 55-27 (1)
The Phoenix Suns
All we needed was to replace Amar''''''e with a solid rebounder who could block some shots and maybe finish at the basket.
Instead we end up with an Atlanta-esque team of SFs. A team of 7 6th men when we needed 3rd-9th.
How did this go so wrong so fast? Was Steve Kerr actually responsible for good decisions, covering for the crapfest Sarver serves? I mean I knew he was bad, but how do you NOT know how to pull off a sign and trade for an actual asset like David Lee, instead of a trade exception I'm sure you're too stupid to know how to use as well?
Anyways, I still think surprising chemistry prevails in this case, as these guys genuinely seem to like each other. Throw in another age defying season by Nash, and the Phoenix medical staff reviving the corpse of Hedo (not to mention Jason Richardson's $14.4 million contract year), and these guys will likely not end up with records as bad as projected. As much as I'd love to see these guys get 50, it seems the West this year will be logjammed at 49-45 wins.
SHOENE says: 37-45 (12)
AHL says: 44-38 (7)
The Sacramento Kings
Rookie 20-5-5.
The steal of the early draft.
The pride of Israeli basketball.
The Super Landry Brothers.
That, uh, bipolarish center guy whose foundation I've actually donated to.
Guys named Beno, Giddens, Pooh, Head, Whiteside, Jason and Mason, Donté (acute accent required!) and Ime Udoka.
Even guys with boring names like Francisco Garcia, Antoine Wright, and Donald Sloan.
And last but not least, but least in some other sense, a gift from the god to our lacktion specialist and Bay Area enthusiast chris, Darnell Lacktion Jackson.
What's not to love about this team? I mean other than a 9th seed upside, multiple character issue risks, and speeding tickets.
SHOENE says: 43-39 (9)
AHL says: 39-43 (13)
Final Verdict for the 2010-11 Pacific Division: Waiting for a bunch of old guys to get injured, funny combinations of names, a couple of first round playoff exits, and Jeremy Lin.
-AnacondaHL
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