'Twas the Night Before Basketbawful Christmas

[Ed. note -- Guest post today from The Other Chris, channeling his inner poet. When your kids are cranky and restless tonight, be sure to read them any story other than this one. They'd be too wired and giddy with anticipation for the Christmas night Frail Blazers/Warriors game to go to sleep otherwise. Merry Christmas everyone! -Dan B.]


'Twas the night before Christmas,

And all through Eddie's House,

Not a player liked Sterling,

That cheap racist louse.

The stockings were hung way up high by Yinka Dare,

Ready for booty from the new CBA, like winnin' the lottery,

The out-of-wedlock baby mamma children were snug in their beds,

Their daddies caroused strip joints, not a care in their heads,

And Craig Sager in a stupid suit, while Jackson and Arenas bust caps,

Sternly, anyone who whines this year is rewarded with a slap,

When out in Rose Garden there arose such a clatter,

It was the sound of Frail Blazers knees, they had collectively shattered!!!

Away to the rescue flew D-Wade the Flash!

But to South Beach came LeBron and Bosh, for a little less cash.

Tore down the rim and with authorit-ah, Blake did smash!

The Moon confounds us with Bawful, much like once did The Snow

There's no lustre left in the Leastern, so many teams that blow.

When, what to my wondering League Pass should appear,

But the lumbering undead corpse of Erik Dampier!

With Boykins still playing, so little and quick,

I knew in a moment this season would be sick.

More vapid than Britney, The King's TV games,

But vying for the title, all of the big names:

"Now Garnett! Now Allen! Now Pierce, now Rondo!"

"If any of you get injured, your title hopes are gonzo!"

"On Williams! On Rose! On Jennings! On Paul!"

"There's a new kid in town, his name is John Wall!"

As The Answer out of the NBA and to Turkey did fly,

Like David Thompson, players these days can walk the sky,

So up to the top, the Lakers they flew

With zombie Fish, and Kobe, and crazy Artest, too.

And then in a twinkling, I heard there was proof.

That the ancient Spurs aren't done, they also plan to raise the roof.

As Drew joined yet another team, with weird head hair and lots of rebounds,

Tumbling down came the Bucks, the Deer have been bound.

They dress all in fur, these millionares, and never go by foot,

Except maybe Matt Booner, covered in smog and soot.

A gaggle of Bulls follow Derrick, as he attacks the rack,

A rich history of glory, they want to go back.

Their eyes - how they twinkle! Even the Paupers, they're merry!

At least the NBA doesn't have to put up with Don Fucking Cherry!

Draftees usually rock a suit, but for Noah it's a bow,

No matter, he's good; watch out, Pierce, thunder down below!

Red, iconic with a cigar clamped in his teeth,

The Celtics, loved and hated, keep piling up the wreaths.

With broad faces and even broader bellies,

The likes of Diaw and Davis need to lay off the damn jelly,

With Oden once again laid up on the shelf,

Probably, after dong pic, though "I shoulda stopped myself".

With a wink of his eye, there goes little Luther Head,

Banished to Sacramento, the land of the walking dead.

Arenas speaks no more, he just goes straight to work.

Too bad his shot and his game have gone completely beserk.

Last year in the Finals it was the Lake Show by a nose;

But everyone reloaded, gunning for the overthrow.

Like legions of homers, cringing at a late whistle.

The Raptors, Cavs and Warriors can fit their hopes in a thistle.

But as Marv Albert exclaimed, at another spectacular sight:

"There's always hope for you sad sacks; just wait for draft night!!"

A Tragedy Saved With Misery - by BadDave

Hey Bawfulites - this is one of my few ever actual entries on Bawful. Usually I'm too busy and lazy to contribute directly, but Bawful browbeat me with merciless texts until I capitulated in tears. As a sidenote, I like basketball, but I'm not the pro that many are here with stats, history, etc. So if you want an in-depth analysis, look elsewhere. I just went as a fan of basketball and Basketbawful.

At any rate, I knew I was in for a real treat when I realized that I had Friday evening free for a Friday-Saturday student conference for which I was serving as the advisor. I went to get tickets for the Sixers versus the Cavaliers, and as an experiment there were 6-seat blocks of tickets in every single section. Last time Bawful and I hit a Bullies game on short notice, it was like trying to find a clean hooker in Cuba. (We found tickets, but they weren't ones we wanted). But no matter, we got upper deck seats behind the benches at half court. And my anticipation began.

When we got there the crowd was electric. I mean, the little 6-year old dropping f-bombs to his mom was really excited. And the girls signing us up for credit cards just after the gate were so excited they actually grabbed one of my students after he said, "No thanks." Ahh, it was good to be back in Philly. We went ahead and proceeded to our seats, about 15 minutes before the tip. So we could beat the crowd and get settled.

We made it.
I thought I was in a new episode for The Walking Dead . The emptiness was nightmarish. The only folks around were the Hare Raisers and the "Fans of the Game". In case you're too lazy to click that first link, they're the acrobatic posse for Hip-Hop, the least memorable mascot in the world. The PA system was blaring all sorts of gangster rap, which I think was targeted to the young, African-American population that wasn't coming to the game. Because they've got more standards than I do.

The teams finally come out to warm up, and it looked promising for a bawful game. The Cavs literally just did ten solid minutes of slow-motion layups. No jumpers. No dunks. Just boring layups. Fast forward past half-assed Hare Raiser shenanigans and a decent national anthem (thanks for printing the words -- I had a moment of patriotic despair when I realized we need to karaoke our own national anthem), and we were then treated to the best part of the game. The pre-game video.

I had honestly forgotten the entire legacy of the 76ers. I generally think of Barkley, Dr. J and Wilt. Of course Iverson was in that movie too, but they included scenes of Moses Malone, Maurice Cheeks, Billy Cunningham, Hal Greer, Dolph Schayes, World B. Free (how could I forget him?), Darryl Dawkins, George McGinnis, and Doug Collins. Sorry folks. No Shawn Bradley. But seriously, the 76ers have quite a long history, especially if you go back to their Syracuse days and beyond. No matter how bawful they get, you can't take that away from them.

The game opens and of course neither Varejao nor Hawes can get it on first jump. It pretty much falls onto Varejao who quickly bats it away before it gets stuck in his Jerry Curls. And the next 12 minutes convinces me that if defense was not included in the ticket price. Mo Williams was just waltzing to the basket with abandon, and Varejao was getting easy boards and putbacks. Oh, and flops. After Holiday hit him at about 6 MPH, Varejao flew out of the paint like a wad of wet paper towels out of a PVC potato cannon. At this point I text bawful that the Cavs are up by 20 in the FIRST QUARTER and that Varejao is flopping. "Natch" is the reply.

The other best part of the evening then took place. CRAB FRIES! What better awesome treat for the Craboliers game? Seriously. I'm a right fat bastard compared to most of you. I like my food. And when I die in the sack at 65 it is a conscious choice! So the crab fries were totally on my radar as my only source for dinner that night. The only sad part was that since I was advising students, no beer for me. I guess it did keep the tab down. Oh, and in PA we have Yuengling: America's oldest beer. It is so much better that Barfweiser or Miller Diarrheal that it's my gold standard throughout the year. If you ever get the chance, do it. But, sadly, I passed and instead reached for an ice, cold, root beer.

During this time the announcer must have drunk the purple Kool-Aid, because he officially died worse than the defense in the game. At one point, Jamario Moon made a wide-open jumper, and the only thing over the PA was a strange mix of Ben Stein and Bob Thornton from Slingblade: "Jamario. Moon." The Sixers though, started battling back. I think it was less of a desire to win and more of a lack of understanding that they were even down 20. The Cavs started missing a few more shots due to the smell of the Crab Fries, and at half the Sixers were only down about 10.

Here's where I realized that some teams are in sorry financial shape. The last few games I’ve been at have been in Chicago, where they can afford such awesome hits as Duo Design. The Sixers ran three "follow the peanut" games on the scoreboard and had two contestants try to hit jumpers from the layup position (worth $2), free throw ($3) and a three-pointer ($5). They had three minutes. The winner won $10 to $3. And despite all of that, it was still better than Duo Design.

I just can't reference Duo Design. Instead,I'll post the reaction to our contestants.
The third quarter made it seem like the Sixers cared about winning. Elton Brand started coming over the PA more and more. I did a rough calculation – I figured his contract was about $15 mil this year (good guess – it’s $15,979,099). With the math on my cell phone, I figured he was getting paid about $183 K for this game. Each time his name got called, it was worth anywhere from $9 to $16 thousand dollars. Freaking SlingBen Stein on the PA was making me depressed. I then noticed Holiday was having a holiday on the Cavs. Who is Holiday? I don’t even know this guy. As a little perspective, he’s making $1.6 mil this year. Every time his name got called he was making a little more than $1,000 dollars each time. And by the hustle in the game, *he’s* the one that should have been paid 10 times the amount of other players.

Thank god for the 4th quarter though, because surely the magnets that held down defender’s shoes would be turned off. Right? RIGHT? Well, the first two quarters of the game the Cavs put up 34 and 27 points, and then bricked their way to 18 points in the third quarter. If Philly could just keep them to about 24-25 points, they can score more than the 6 they need to win! Or, instead, they forget all about defense and treat the lane like it’s Vault 87.. Daniel Gibson and Mo Williams were waltzing in the lane constantly. And, in a way that only a team anchored by Elton Brand can do, the Sixers proceeded to stand around more aggressively to give up 44 points in the fourth and lose the game.

Overall, I felt like I spent $45 bucks for a good pick-up game. There were almost no set plays, awful defense, and bewildered guys just hoping to get back on the bench for their own Crab Fries. But one thing about NBA games that I can always appreciate, is the parts of the game you only get to see live.

AnacondaHL's BasketBawful Quick Reference to Summer 2010

UPDATES!: ATL, BOS, CHA, DAL, DEN, HOU, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, ORL, PHO, SAS, UTA, WAS, and all teams 2010-11 salaries double checked!


July 1st, 2010. It's 12:00 am.

Do you know where your free agents are?


Welcome to my breakdown of the much hyped NBA Free Agency 2010. Here I hope to provide a quick (actually, this is absurdly long) snapshot of each team's current situation and outlook, so that you can survive this dreadful week of non-trading activity. *rolls eyes into back of head as far as possible* Really though, have you tried to visit NBA.com, ESPN.com, or anything NBA media related recently? I've seen Linda Blair vomit less than the amount of LeBron and free agency bullshit spewed by the media these past few days. So thus, I've taken it upon myself to capture all you need to know to properly enjoy this next week in true BasketBawful spirit.

For comedy's sake, I'm going to ask that we avoid the really crappy wishful thinking type trades and scenarios. Yes, I understand that you could trade Rashard Lewis for LeBron. Yes, I understand that Bynum and Vujacic could be in a sign and trade for Bosh, and then every championship-piggyback veteran could sign with the Lakers. Yes, I understand that you could trade Kirk Hinrich to the Wizards even though they have a poison situation and already have 2 PGs. (Wait, you mean that last one actually is gonna happen?) Anyways, I hope to have the most updated figures, numbers, and rosters by the time of this post, so if you spot any errors or as updates come along, or you just feel like sharing with me your stupid idea of how your team will get LeBron so we can all make fun of you, post a comment!

Other assumptions:

• Going with the flat $56.1 million cap for next season.
  
• This means for new contracts where the 105% rule doesn't apply, we'll use the minimum salary table here, and the maximum contract will be assumed as follows:
  0-6 years of experience: $14,025,000
  7-9 years: $16,830,000
  10+ years: $19,635,000
  
• No team is so completely stupid as to talk about their first round draft pick's salary, so we will use the 100% number.
  
• Assume all teams in the FA hunt will sign minimum salary contracts after July 8th.
  
• We're using face value or near value ideas. No assuming what some guy wants, like Shaq taking the vet minimum somewhere for the Lakers some stacked super team. Unless you have a personal relationship with said player, and his family, and have personally spoken to him about his exact intentions, personally, and how he's okay with leaving tens of millions on the table for the chance at a ring. Then by all means, please share.
  
• Crappy players will take their player options. Anyone that has the remote chance at an extension or making more money by becoming a FA (especially considering the end of this CBA) we will assume will not take their player options. Unless we're pretty sure that a team wants to screw a guy into staying on their team, or their qualifying offer/team option happens to be near equal to what they'd make anyways, we're not assuming either is picked up.
  
• Think about sign and trades, and if we're going to talk about them, find an incentive for ALL PARTIES (both teams and the players being extended). Not everyone can make deals with Chris Wallace. Otherwise, lets assume re-signings and free agency.
  
• Ugh, for the last time, LeBron's not coming to your team, stop bothering everyone about it.

Important resources:

• HoopData's Salaries section (comprehensive, but slightly outdated)
  
• HoopsHype's Salaries section (WARNING! This site sucks to visit without proper ad and/or javascript blocking.)
  
• Rookie Scale Salary Info from NBPA (pdf)
  
• Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap FAQ (read every single word of this. You know, since it expires next year, you'll want to know why there's a lockout.)
  
• Whatever site you use for this year's draft information, and recent transactions.
  
• Oddly, it's hard to find consistent and accurate draft data. Pretty much every source says something different, and has varying updates on recent trades.

The Spreadsheet:
Everything that follows will be a summary of what I've collected in this spreadsheet. (Google docs, no login required, click it now.) First, I've collected and compiled important information from the draft with respect to salaries. This was, as I mentioned earlier, unnecessarily difficult to do, and there's bound to be errors. If you see any errors, let me know.

Second, I've collected a list of free agents who are eligible for max contracts above (in red) or near their respective cap percentage.

List of players who are eligible for greater than max contracts:
Jermaine O'Neal $24,166,800
Tracy McGrady $23,607,280
Shaquille O'Neal $22,050,000
Dirk Nowitzki $20,785,500
Paul Pierce $20,785,498
Ray Allen $19,715,703
Amare Stoudemire $17,197,241
Yao Ming $17,197,241

Finally, there's a tab for every team, where I've copied hoopdata's page, updated the numbers with the latest trades and draft, and complied some cap room scenarios. Since I made lots of notes and formulas such that it's near impossible for anyone else to read what I've done, let's begin with the teams. Oh, also, I use the term "albatross" for long guaranteed contract that you may want to get out of, and the term "S&T bait" for a 2011 expiring that may be used to help leverage this summer's free agency.

Atlanta Hawks:
Current Maximum Cap Space: $6,180,374
UPDATE Maximum non-Cap holding onto Joe Johnson: ($21,656,885)
Notable Free Agents: Joe Johnson [$14,976,754, no player option]
Albatross: See below.
S&T bait: Jamal Crawford [$10,080,000]
Summary: The Hawks have some sign and trade bait with 2011 expirings, or could try to sign and trade Joe Johnson, but it's probably too late for that. Too many albatross contracts with Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, and Zaza through 2013 and Bibby through 2012. Maybe shoot for J.J. Redick? Or hope for the Mayan apocalypse?
Final Verdict: A good hope-crusher for Minnesota fans to show the long lasting effects of what happens when you keep drafting players that play the same position.

Boston Celtics:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space: ($11,098,826)
Maximum Cap Space if Paul Pierce opts out and Rasheed Wallace retires and Ray Allen isn't re-signed: $15,789,807
UPDATE Maximum non-Cap Space with Paul Pierce cap hold: ($4,522,087)
Albatross: Kevin Garnett [$18,832,044, through 2012]
S&T bait: Kendrick Perkins [$4,890,208], Glen Davis [$3,000,004]
Summary: To blow up or not to blow up. This team could go lots of ways, even down to asking KG to take a pay cut. Too many stupid rumors, only time will tell what their plan is (if any).
Final Verdict: Bleh.

Charlotte Bobcats:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space: ($4,448,542)
UPDATE Maximum non-Cap Space with Tyrus Thomas qualifying offer: ($17,999,938)
Notable Free Agents UPDATED: Raymond Felton [$5,501,196]
Albatross: The entire team.
S&T bait UPDATE: Tyson Chandler [$12,600,000], Nazr Mohammed [$6,883,800]
Summary: No draft pick, locked down guaranteed salaries, and an owner with a Hitler mustache. Hey, at least the defense is good, right? It might be worth it to give up big and try to unload some salary. If you need a reason to blame, I'd suggest Smithfield Foods and what they've done to the state of North Carolina.
Final Verdict: Yea, y'all are fucked.

Chicago Bulls:
Current Maximum Cap Space: $20,578,404
Maximum Cap Space if that completely stupid trade to Washington is true: $29,933,796
Notable Free Agents: Brad Miller?
Albatross: Luol "king-o-albatross" Deng [$11,345,000, through 2014]
S&T bait: None.
Summary: The Bulls are definitely in FA search mode, as they don't really have the assets to pull off a sign and trade deal. Let's also assume no one's picking up Luol Deng's crappy crap. Yet somehow Washington is absorbing over $9M in cap for Chicago. Something just doesn't add up.
Final Verdict: It's looking tough to clear the room for 2 maxes, but a strong team can be built here.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
Current Maximum Cap Space: $9,472,590
Notable Free Agents: That one dude [$15,779,912, player option] and that old fat guy [$21,000,000]
Albatross: Antawn Jamison [$13,358,905, through 2012]
S&T bait: Some, but is obviously on the giving end of a S&T if one were to happen
Summary: Screw this,
Final Verdict: Y'all are fucked.

Dallas Mavericks:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space UPDATE: ($17,812,046)
Maximum Cap Space if Dirk opts out, Najera and Barea lowballed a.k.a. "The Mavs are fucked" case: $2,499,850
Notable Free Agents: Dirk Nowitzki [$19,795,714, player option]
Albatross: Shawn Marion [$7,305,500, through 2013]
S&T bait: Caron Butler [$10,561,960], Jason Terry? [$9,873,000]
Summary: Wow, Dirk can really screw over the Mavs, can't he?
Final Verdict: Is Cuban good at pulling off sign and trades?

Denver Nuggets:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space: ($19,593,497)
Notable Free Agents UPDATE: Kenyon Martin? Nope.
Albatross: Everything.
S&T bait UPDATE: J.R. Smith [$6,694,851], Kenyon Martin [$16,795,454], disgruntled Melo and crappy front office bargaining.
Summary: Looking bleak. Everyone's locked down this year, and I don't see Kenyon Martin earning a max contract. No draft picks, no real assets to trade, Carmelo likely leaving, and Birdman through 2014. Update: Or, the front office is threatening to trade Melo if he doesn't extend. Ya, okay.
Final Verdict: So fucked.

Detroit Pistons:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space: ($2,572,216)
Notable Free Agents: KWAME BROWN BITCHES [$4,000,000]
Albatross: Detroit fans probably shouldn't look at their team's future salary chart...
S&T bait UPDATE: Tayshaun Prince [$11,147,760, no player option], Chris Wilcox [$3,000,000]
Summary: Still in the early years of the "how to blow your cap space by severely over-paying" era. But look on the bright side; only $9,000,000 of Rip Hamilton's contract in 2012-13 is guaranteed.
Final Verdict: What's the suicide rate in Detroit again?

Golden State Warriors:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space UPDATE: ($1,085,353)
Notable Free Agents: Uhh...
Albatross: Monta "McTurnover" Ellis [$11,000,000, through 2014]
S&T bait: Bleh.
Summary: Welcome to the Udoh era.
Final Verdict: Not much to do this summer.

Houston Rockets:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space UPDATE: ($16,080,834)
Notable Free Agents: not Yao [apparently picking up $17,686,100 player option]
Albatross: Kevin Martin [$10,600,005, through 2013], Trevor Ariza [$6,322,320, through 2013/14]
S&T bait: A lot.
Summary: Assuming Jared Jeffries picks up his $6,883,800 option, you've got Shane Battier's $7,429,500, Jordan Hill's $2,669,520, David Andersen's $2,500,000, not trading Aaron Brooks, etc., the Rockets have a lot of indirect options this off-season. They can afford to take on a mini albatross with a top tier free agent in a sign and trade, but it's gonna be work to get it done.
Final Verdict: Needs some more Morey Magic.

Indiana Pacers:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space: ($10,547,446)
Notable Free Agents: Uhm...
Albatross: Uhm...
S&T bait: A lot.
Summary: The Pacers have cleared the decks for the 2011-12 season, with Danny Granger locked in through 2014. Maybe this is a brilliant move by Bird to not get screwed by the new 2011 CBA, or maybe there's a bunch of trades incoming. In any case, the 2010-11 roster looks just like last season's roster, only somehow worse.
Final Verdict: Lookin' pretty screwed.

Los Angeles Clippers:
Current Maximum Cap Space: $17,210,816
Notable Free Agents: Bleh.
Albatross: Baron Davis [$13,000,000, through 2012], Chris Kaman [$11,300,000, through 2012]
S&T bait: None really.
Summary: Lacking the assets, the Clippers are going for the homerun swing here this summer. I guess if there's some max contract FA that feels like getting treated like shit and then somehow getting injured, his 4 other teammates will welcome him with warm arms.
Final Verdict: Uh, it's the Clippers.

The Supreme Ultimate Los Angeles World Champions of the Universe Lakers:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space: ($29,530,299)
Notable Free Agents: Adam Morrison [$5,257,229], Derek Fisher [$5,048,000], Jordan Farmar [$1,947,200]
Albatross: Kobe Bryant [$24,806,250 $25,244,493 $27,849,149 $30,453,805], Pau Gasol [$17,823,000 $18,714,150 $19,000,000 $19,285,850], Ron Artest [$6,322,320 $6,790,640 $7,258,960], Lamar Odom [$8,200,000 $8,900,000], Andrew Bynum [$13,700,000 $14,900,000]
S&T bait: Sasha Vujacic [$5,475,113]
Summary: Pour some milk into that bowl of championship rings as part of your balanced breakfast. What kind do you prefer? I always enjoyed 1%, a balance of taste and health.
Final Verdict: Fuck this shit.

Memphis Grizzlies:
Current Maximum Cap Space UPDATE: $6,549,212
UPDATE Maximum non-Cap Space with Rudy Gay qualifying offer: ($3,293,779)
Notable Free Agents: Rudy Gay [$3,280,997]
Albatross: Hasheem Thabeet [$4,793,280, through 2011]
S&T bait: A lot lot.
Summary: There is $0 guaranteed on the books for 2011-12! Another team preparing for the new CBA and lockout? Maybe they can spice things up by attempting to offer Gay the qualifying offer.
Final Verdict: See Indiana Pacers, minus franchise killing brawl.

Miami Heat:
Current Maximum Cap Space: $43,635,815
UPDATE Maximum Cap Space with Wade's hold: $27,952,027
UPDATE Maximum Cap Space with retarded Raptors S&T: $16,726,145 ($17,199,749 for LeBron)
Notable Free Agents: Jermaine O'Neal [$23,016,000], Summit Member #1 [$15,779,912]
Albatross: Michael "oh how the great have fallen" Beasley [$4,962,240, through 2011]
S&T bait: Don't you need people on your team in order to have bait?
Summary: It seems the Heat are giving up their triple max contract plan, as the Mario Chalmers team option was just picked up. They can offer $15,018,876 to three FAs though, or $15,156,048 if Joel Anthony decides to be a nice guy as reported, so if that summit crap was actually true, this is the number they'd be looking at.
UPDATE: The Heat are really waiting for that final cap space number, as any small change will affect if they can give 3 max contracts. You know, assuming this completely fucking stupid S&T with Toronto doesn't happen.
Final Verdict: Keep mentioning the reduced taxes and nightlife!

Milwaukee Bucks:
Current Maximum Cap Space UPDATE: $1,402,899 $7,382,671 (Salmons didn't take option lol)
Notable Free Agents: John Salmons, apparently
Albatross: Bad Porn [$9,600,000, through 2013]
S&T bait UPDATE: Michael Redd's picked up option [$18,300,000]
Summary: No idea. UPDATE: Still no idea.
Final Verdict: A strange combination of team options, weird contracts, and pretty much being stuck this off-season. Stuck still with a bad team.

Minnesota Timberwolves:
Current Maximum Cap Space: $13,235,591
Notable Free Agents: Darko [$7,540,000]
Albatross: Al Jefferson [$13,000,000, through 2013]
S&T bait: Some, not really though.
Summary: T'wolves have basically given up on the max FA chase. Unless Kahn pulls something amazing *snicker*. How sad is it that re-signing Darko actually becomes an urgent priority? UPDATE: Looking deeper at Rudy Gay's qualifying offer, I've added a line for his proposed salary [$13,709,195]. But otherwise yea, this team still sucks.
Final Verdict: Can you even make paella in Minnesota?

New Jersey Nets:
Current Maximum Cap Space: $29,989,807
Notable Free Agents: Barf.
Albatross: Devin Harris [$8,981,000, through 2013]
S&T bait: Terrence Williams [$2,214,480], Courtey Lee [$1,352,640], Quinton Ross? [$1,146,337 player option]
Summary: The Nets need a few more minor cuts to make the double FA signing work. Getting rid of Yi was a surprisingly good start. Will hanging Kris Humphries by his feet over a gold mine help read the goal?
Final Verdict: Comrade, trust the motherland! and Jay-Z!

New Orleans Hornets:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space: ($11,913,649)
Notable Free Agents: ....
Albatross: Emeka Okafor [$11,795,000, through 2013/14]
S&T bait: Maybe?
Summary: This is pretty depressing to analyze.
Final Verdict: So fucked. Does Chris Paul feel worse than a slowly dying burning oily sea turtle?

New York Knicks:
Current Maximum Cap Space: $34,528,263
Notable Free Agents: Tracy McGrady [$22,483,124], David Lee [$7,000,00]
Albatross: Eddy Curry [$11,276,863, 2011]
S&T bait: Not much, really.
Summary: This one mistake, Eddy Curry, has pretty much kept NY out of the picture for LeBron. At least the Knicks are the only team in the clear for double max salaries!
Final Verdict: Hello, Boozer and Joe Johnson!

Oklahoma City Thunder:
Current Maximum Cap Space: $6,898,156
Notable Free Agents: None.
Albatross: None.
S&T bait: Tons.
Summary: So the plans to steal Sam Presti and make him GM of the Suns is underwa-...oh, ahem. Anyways, even look at those trades FOR Daequan Cook and Morris Peterson, both expiring in 2011. Could Indiana, Memphis, and Oklahoma City be onto something here?
Final Verdict: Wow, just look at this team build year after year.

Orlando Magic:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space: ($27,200,430)
UPDATE Maximum non-Cap Space with J.J. Redick hold and Barnes opted out: ($34,118,654)
Notable Free Agents UPDATE: J.J. Redick's sweet touch [$2,839,408]
Albatross: Ahahaha.
S&T bait: No, in a bad way.
Summary: Man, next year is gonna hurt.
Final Verdict: As with the Detroit fans, Orlando fans may not want to gaze directly at the ORL salary chart. UPDATE: Like seriously, don't look.

Philadelphia 76ers :
Current Maximum non-Cap Space: ($10,735,638)
Notable Free Agents: Allen Iverson [$650,686]
Albatross: Aaaaahahahaha-
S&T bait: Sorta?
Summary: Even if players opt our from their options, the 76ers still would be stuck this off-season with their same crappy crew.
Final Verdict: Nothing's changed, pretty much screwed for the next 3 years.

Phoenix Suns:
Current Maximum Cap Space (assumes Amar'e opts out) UPDATE: $14,461,055 $11,221,055 (Grant Hill picked up option)
UPDATE Maximum non-Cap Space with Amar'e max hold: ($5,502,582)
Notable Free Agents: LOU!
Albatross: Not really
S&T bait: Yes.
Summary: Didn't think the Suns could pull off getting under the cap and come close to offering a max contract. UPDATE: Not close anymore, but for the love of God please let go of Amar''''''e's cap hold!
Final Verdict: Rebounding and defense, rebounding and defense...

Portland Trail Blazers:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space: ($11,862,668)
Notable Free Agents: None.
Albatross: Lamarcus Aldridge [$10,744,000, through 2015]
S&T bait: Andre Miller [$7,269,264], Joel Przybilla [$7,405,300 player option]
Summary: Maybe Kevin Pritchard did try to screw Portland on his way out, as his draft day trades ultimately put the Blazers about $7 million even more over the cap.
Final Verdict: *tears ACL*

Sacramento Kings:
Current Maximum Cap Space UPDATE: $15,366,159
Notable Free Agents: [This section is intentionally left blank]
Albatross: Beno Udrih [$6,478,600, through 2012/13], Francisco Garcia [$5,500,000, through 2013].
S&T bait UPDATE: Samuel Dalembert [$13,278,129], Carl Landry [$3,000,000]
Summary UPDATE: Lost about $3 million in cap space, probably not gonna find a good use for the cap space. Maybe fight Minnesota for Gay? (This is quite possibly the most favorite sentence I've ever written.)
Final Verdict: Who'd want to come to a team that gets screwed by the refs anyways?

San Antonio Spurs:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space UPDATE: ($13,802,086) $1,343,330
Notable Free Agents UPDATE: No. LOL RJ.
Albatross: Manu? Duncan?
S&T bait: Richard Jefferson [$15,200,000], Tony Parker [$13,650,000]
Summary: Gonna assume Richard Jefferson picks up his player option here, unless I missed something. They might start a trend of when being over the cap by $13 million, saying instead "one Tony Parker over the cap". UPDATE: Aaaaaaahahahahahaha Richard Jefferson probably should have asked Bonzi Wells for advice before this decision. Or like anyone with two eyes.
Final Verdict: Lots of sign and trade opportunity.

Toronto Raptors:
Current Maximum Cap Space: $6,243,868
Notable Free Agents: Summit tag-a-long Member #3 [$15,779,912]
Albatross: My eyes...
S&T bait: Eh.
Summary: Just look at all that Albatross! A core of Hedo, Calderon, Bargs, and Jarrett Jack through 2013?! And you thought LeBron played with some bad teammates!
Final Verdict: More like, sign and trade away.

Utah Jazz:
Current Maximum non-Cap Space UPDATE: ($5,518,526) ($6,176,046) (2 qualifying offers)
Notable Free Agents: Carlos Boozer [$12,323,900, no player option], Kyle Korver [$5,163,636, no player option]
Albatross: Paul Millsap [$7,600,000, through 2013]
S&T bait: Maybe
Summary: Doesn't look like there's much to do here, maybe leverage Kirilenko's expiring for a swingman to make way for Gordon Hayward. Also to buy Fesenko some shake weights.
Final Verdict: Well at least you've got some nice green jazzy mountains.

Washington Wizards:
Current Maximum Cap Space UPDATED: $14,861,038
Maximum Cap Space if that completely stupid trade with Chicago is true UPDATED: $5,032,042
Notable Free Agents: Are there markets for Josh Howard and Mike Miller?
Albatross: *points upwards at BasketBawful banner* [$17,730,693, through 2014, player option in 2013]
S&T bait: Ugh, who cares anymore.
Summary: So, back to this trade again. It becomes official July 8th or something, but with the Yi trade it pretty much shows how desperate the Wiz are to fill the slots. In complete give-up mode. On the plus side, I hope to see tons of John Wall driving and kicking it to Yi for the missed shot, followed by awkwardly looking at each other.
Final Verdict: Abandon all hope all ye who enter here.


-AnacondaHL

Word of the Day: Schrodinger's playoff team

A thought experiment for fans who haven't lost hope in their team
Schrodinger's playoff team (schruh'-deeng-uhz pla'-of teem) noun. Term describing a playoff team which exists in a state being simultaneously dead and alive.

Usage example #1: While the series was still anyone's to take, that Duncan three turned the Suns into a Schrodinger's playoff team.

Usage example #2: Game 1 against Cleveland confirmed Chicago's status as a Schrodinger's playoff team.

Word trivia: A higher-than-usual-brow hat-tip to the famous Schrodinger's cat thought experiment. For the NBA Playoffs, it would describe the state of a team being alive in the playoffs, yet simultaneously dead due to whatever reason. Thus by definition, a Game 7 or series ending game does not generate a Schrodinger's playoff team, as the state of said team would clearly be defined as dead, perhaps in a different form of denial such as a playoff apocalypse. Conversely, many Schrodinger's playoff teams are defined just before or after a Game 1 of a series, in high correlation with the series win percentage of the first game winner.

Fans of a Schrodinger's playoff team generate this quantum superposition by attempting to objectively reason how their team still has a chance to win the series, etc. In other words, they can figuratively not observe the contents of the "box" by denial or some other mechanism, thus creating the simultaneous states. As more losses accumulate and a hopeless enviroment begins to affect the system, a Schrodinger's playoff team shifts towards a more typical "dead man walking" team, a subtle yet distinct difference.

Further Usage: I suppose the term could be generalized and expanded, such as a Schrodinger's playoff franchise (e.g. Jazz, Phoenix), or even simply a Schrodinger's NBA team (e.g. Pacers post-2004), further investigations are suggested.

Additional Notes: No, I don't know where you can purchase a LeBron James geiger counter.

Additional Notes #2: Yes, the Duncan 3 still haunts my dreams. I'm not even going to post the YouTube of it because it makes me sadface.

-AnacondaHL

Fantasy Basketball Stats: Standard Deviation and You

Hello Basketbawful readers! Due to some circumstances, I will be revealing my end of the season fantasy basketball analysis a bit early. Although my writing style is typically humor and sarcasm with some stats thrown in (okay, more like sarcasm and pessimism), today I’d like to take a more refined look at the stats of fantasy basketball.

The Intro:

So another year of fantasy basketball is winding to a close. Maybe your team got pounded by injuries; maybe your team had Dirk, Nash, and David Lee and cruised to victory (like mine). There are many different methods out there to look at and evaluate player performance, and there are lots of ranking systems. Sure LeBron was obviously #1, but what about down the list? Do you really trust those pre-rankings? Today I’m going to talk about a method of evaluating the numbers, so hopefully during next year’s draft you can use your 90 seconds scrambling for injury and team information while having some confidence in the numbers to expect.

The Method:

We are already quite comfortable with using averages in sports stats. LeBron scored 29.9 points per game. Dwight grabbed 13.6 rebounds per 36 minutes. So instead of jumping to PER or RAPM or some other complex analysis, why not go to just the next step with standard deviation? In fantasy, we have the entire population (all players that have logged minutes in an NBA game), and all we really care about is choosing the guy that is better than what the other teams have. Standard Deviation could fit this need!

Well let’s not get ahead of ourselves. For example with Yahoo!, you get all the raw number totals and averages, and even their special “O-Rank” and “Rank”. Why expand beyond that? Well the problem is, when you sort by FG%, or TOV, things start looking strange. Is Marc Gasol’s 58.3% going to help your team more than David Lee’s 55.2%? Just how bad is Dwight Howard’s 60.3% FT shooting going to kill that category? Kinda hard to tell by eyeballing it. Even with the raw numbers: just how much will having Steve Nash on my team dominate the assists category?

The Good News:

Enter: Standardize. If you really don't want to do math, then I’ve still got good news for you: this is all done by ESPN’s Fantasy Basketball Player Rater. In fact, if you are quite satisfied using just the ESPN Player Rater, you probably can stop reading the article now. Here you can see all the Standard Scores in each category, and they are added up to make the final column as a composite score (yes, this makes more sense than adding percentages together randomly *coughHOLLINGERcough*).

For example: LeBron has scored 2033 points as of this post. The league average is 472.5 and the standard deviation is 410.25 pts. So (2033 – 472.5) / 410.25 = 3.8. Meaning LeBron is 3.8 standard deviations above the league average. For those not familiar with standard deviations, a score of 1 puts you above ~84.1% of the population, 2 puts you ~97.7% above, and 3 puts you ~99.9% above, and 4+ is outstanding. Isn’t this what you really want to know on draft day? You can find overall contributors with a glance, and see what needs you are lacking and pickup specialists without having to guesstimate the raw numbers.

Another benefit of Standardizing is the use of negative standard deviations, so you can see when a player is really hurting your team!

The Workarounds:

Okay so the bad news here is ESPN only shows the 8 categories. If you’re playing with TOVs, how does that fit in? Also, how do I calculate the FG% and FT% numbers since they aren’t raw numbers?

Well here’s where we start doing things for ourselves. Pickup your favorite script of choice, or start copying and pasting CSV text from basketball-reference/your favorite website. Now then, turnovers are easier: since it works as a negative statistic, I simply found all the Standard Scores then changed the signs.

For FG% and FT%: I personally believe ESPN doesn’t give enough weight to the amount shot. Shouldn’t LeBron shooting 50.0% at 20.2 FGA/g have more impact than Varejao shooting 57.1%, but only 6.4 FGA/g? Well I think so, which is why I normalized first, then weighted by shots taken before dividing by standard deviation. My FGscore is defined as:


And I standardize the FGscore (average is already zero, so really I’m just dividing by standard deviation). So LeBron ends up with 2.37, and Varejao with 2.07, not that anyone would think of drafting the latter over the former. But in any case, now we can properly rank players by their FG%, so all the lacktators with 1.000% FG% filter to the bottom.

Same thing with FT%: Is Nash's 94.1% (2.7 FTA/g) or Carmelo's 83.1% (9.3 FTA/g) helping you win the category more? ESPN puts Nash over ‘Melo, but using my FTscore, Carmelo scores a 2.67 while Nash scores a 2.36. Of course, Durant and Dirk still dominate the category.

The Advanced Bad News:

Okay, I’ve been far too positive towards ESPN. This sounds almost too good to be true. What are the limitations of this method? Like I said, Z-Score happens to work well since we have the entire population of data. However, a simple glance at the data will show you that we are NOT working with normalized data, one of the assumptions in Standard Scores! Going one step further, I looked at the skew and kurtosis of each category, and they are off the charts, with the worst skew on blocks at 2.2 and kurtosis on FT% at 16.81.

In simpler terms, this means some standard deviations at the far ends may be inflated more than they should be. For example, Dwight gets a near 6 score in blocks, which statistically should not happen in only ~450 people. It’s like one in a million. So as with all advanced statistics, use them carefully!

In addition, I did a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the 9 factors. Turns out there’s such a strong negative correlation between Points and Turnovers, and modestly strong correlations between Points and other categories, it’s not even worth bothering looking at the TOV category! Stupid Yahoo!!

The Advanced Customization:

So maybe you hate Turnovers. Maybe you hate my FGscore and FTscore. I think it’s also perfectly valid to try and dominate the 6 raw stat categories! It’s very intuitive, and any wins in FG%, FT%, or TOV is just gravy. In fact, I’ve done just this...

Putting it all together: We can analyze total season numbers, per game numbers, or per (36) minute numbers. I’ve proposed looking at standard scores of the 9 categories like Yahoo!, the 8 categories like ESPN, or the 6 raw stat categories. Well since we’re already working with Standard Scores... why not just add composite scores together? I did this with the completed 2008-09 data. So total season numbers help show how much a player contributed, per game numbers account for some injuries and such, and per minute numbers account for varying playing time. Since they’re all standardized now, I just add them together to get a super-composite score, for a really quick look at who did the best (i.e. which players I should really be comparing during my 90 seconds to draft)!

After doing all this, and comparing it to 9, 8, and 6 category, it turns out there’s lots of correlation among them, but the analysis that made overall sense was... 6 category! Are you serious?! After all that work I did messing with TOV and FG% and FT%, you could essentially ignore them?

Well sorta. Mostly, it’s Steven Hill’s fault. Because he played in only one game with 2 minutes played, his fantasy impact scales to the absurd (remember all that stuff about skew and kurtosis). But looking at only the 6 raw stats, even he can’t escape a more proper ranking!

Another way to avoid this, and possibly help further normalize the data: just take the top 200 player, or top 100, or whatever, and treat that as your total population, because lets be honest: no one’s putting Mario West or JamesOn Curry on their fantasy teams. Hell, to simplify things, take the top 4 players and do a pretend 2 person draft. From there, you can see what categories you’re taking, which you’re giving away, and which analysis to use.

The End:

I hope this gave you some insight into stats and fantasy basketball. Of course, when it comes to injuries and rookies etc., you’re still on your own. This method I presented is highly useful to roto or h2h, and can be expanded or contracted at your liking, despite its limitations. Want to look at the past 3 years combined? The past month only? Go for it. Don’t just trust those pre-built rankings anymore, grab your favorite programming language/spreadsheet/abacus and find those undervalued and steal picks!

Other random notes: Yes, I graphed a ton of stuff while doing this. Tips I picked up:

• With the top picks, don’t over-value 3pt shooting. It is easy to pick that up later in the draft, or with waivers.


• As I implied before, FG% and FT% is pretty even down the board. Use Standard Scores to slightly suggest one guy over the other. e.g. If you pick up Dwight Howard, concentrate on FG% guys cause there’s probably no combination of players you can pick up to make up the FT% column.


• Blocks are sparse, but spread out down the board.


• Of the remaining stats, Steals and Points have the strongest correlation, and Steals is usually a close category (so every little standard score counts!). This is probably why drafting bots tend to eat up all the point guards early.

And finally, in good Basketbawful fashion, how does my ranking compare to ESPN’s for the worst fantasy player of the season so far?

-6.05 Primoz Brezec
-6.05 Jarron Collins
-6.01 Kwame Brown
-5.98 Eddy Curry
-5.97 Lindsey Hunter
For reference, Mario West has a -5.54.

Worst of the Night: Starring Mr. T

Your current status: Pitied, fool!
Basketbawful called me up, said fools were being unpitied and jibba-jabba was going unchallenged! Well, no mo', suckas. Mr. T is here to change all that.

Greg Oden: A few years ago, some fool tried to give me one 'a those health sammiches from Subway. I took one bite 'a that thing and said, "Where's the meat? This sandwich is full of weeds! I ain't eatin' nothing I don't understand!" Well, when I made that request for meat, NSFW pictures of Greg Oden was not what I was askin' for, chumps!

I know it goes without sayin'...but I pity the fool that's gotta call a press conference to explain how his penis ended up on the Internet.


The Washington Wizards Generals Bullets: People ask what gives me the authority to give advice? I say, First of all, I don't give advice. Dr Phil gives advice. Mr T helps people. I motivate them, I inspire them, I give them hope, and I plant the seed so they can feel good about themselves. Hear me?!

Well, there ain't a damn thing I can say that's gonna make these chumps feel good about themselves. That'd be like tellin' the people who went down on the Titanic, "Don't worry, more boats are on the way, they'll be here right after you die of hypofreezia or whateve'."

Forget the fact that the Bullets let the Lakers shoot damn near 60 percent from the field. Those fools got owned by Shannon Brown. There ain't no shame in gettin' owned by Kobe Bryant. Dude is a former MVP. But Shannon Brown? They even let that dude sneak in and dunk a missed free throw. Take it from T: That's sad.


After the game, Antawn Jamison talked about how his team is without Gilbert Arenas and that other sucka who brought a gun into the team's locker room: "We've been through some crazy stuff that don't normally happen. I wish both guys could come back and play, but as a team, we've got to deal with what we have."

You know how Mr. T feels about excuses...I pity the fools who make 'em.

The Minnesota Timberwolves: What kind 'a chumps lose by 27 to a team that just lost by 50 the other night? These chumps, that's who. The Timberfools let the Knicks hit 17 threes. Teams who can't lift up their damn hands and get 'em in peoples faces don't even deserve pity. They deserve pain.

According to whatever sucka keeps track 'a this stuff, New York's 27-point win is the largest margin of victory in NBA history by a team coming off a 50-point loss. What's mo', the Knicks became the third NBA team to ever win by 20 or more the game after losing by 50. So I may not have any pity for the Timberfool, but history sho' does.

The Phoenix Suns: I remember one time I tried to pity this fool. He told me his name was Jeff. He was married. He pulled out his wallet and showed me three pictures of his kids; Kelly, Robert, Brittany. Real cute kids. Don't get too close man. It's hard to pity a fool if you get too close.

Well, that's how I feel about these chumps. I like the Suns. I like Steve Nash. I like Grant Hill. I don't like Amar''''''e Stoudemire. That's one fool I truly pity. But I like the rest 'a them guys. But after last night, the Suns have lost seven times in their last nine games, and they're 12-18 since starting the season 14-3. What's even more pitiable, the Bobcats came into this game 3-17 on the road. You gotta protect your home, fools!

You also gotta protect the ball. You can't be givin' up no 19 points off no 24 turnovers. Yeah, I'm talkin' to you, Steve (6 TOs), and you, Amar''''''e (5 TOs).

The Golden State Warriors: According to record-tracking suckas, the Kings came into this game having lost 14 of their last 16 games, and both of their wins came against the same chump team that was missin' one of their best players both times. As a kid, I got three meals a day. Oatmeal, miss-a-meal and no meal. Well, the Kings haven't even had that. They've been dieting on pity and failure.

Well, that's what the fool Warriors had for dinner last night. Those chumps shot 31 percent from the field, with Grand Master Chump Corey Maggette going 3-for-22. How does some fool end up going 3-for-22 anyway? When you ain't hitting shots, you stop shootin', fool! If I'm tryin' to punch people in the face, but I keep missing their faces, I'd do something else, like take out their knees, or maybe kick 'em the jimmies. Take it from T: You gotta diversify, fools!

Seriously, there were so many fools in this game, even Mr. T can't pity 'em all. So here's my official Warriors-Kings Pity List: Corey Maggette, Vladimir Radmanovic (0-for-1 in 7 minutes), Cartier Martin (6-for-15), Ronny Turiaf (ugly sumbitch), Anthony Tolliver (2-for-11), Kevin Martin (1-for-9)...and pretty much everybody else.

Lacktion report: My buddy Chris ain't no fool. Read his lacktion report or I will be forced to pity you!

Lakers-Bullets: Luke Walton clearly is blessed with better health than his famous father, as his knees did not explode under the load of a Koopa shell for a 2 second Super Mario! For Washington, Javale McGee fired back at the Hammer Brothers for a 30 second Mario.

Wolves-Knicks: Brian Cardinal fouled once in 3:31 for a +1 suck differential, while New York's Jordan Hill climbed a singular mountain of masonry for the same suck differential score in 1:10.

Bucks-Mavs: Jodie Meeks and Quinton Ross each tossed one brick from Fountain Place for a +1 - Meeks in 1:44 and Ross in 3:46.

Bobcats-Suns: In an overtime victory, DeSagana Diop and Stephen Graham celebrated with enough money to buy themselves vintage pairs of Air Jordans, with 5.2 trillion (5:14) and a 6.3 trillion (6:20) cashouts respectively!

Warriors-Kings: As Nellieball nearly caught the purple paupers napping in the second half AGAIN, until a bizarre foul call on Corey Maggette brought the boogie night to a close for East Oakland's non-defensive showcase (a showcase, which BTW, gave the Sacramento-era baby royals their BEST EVER rebounding performance as a team with 68!!!!!)...

Starting forward Vladimir Radmanovic tossed one brick, lost the rock once, and took a foul for a +3 in 7:18.

Speaking of Maggette, while he didn't lack it up - how can you with 19 points - he DID score a Dantley after baking masonry 19 out of 22 times from the field, but making a full 13 of 16 attempts from the stripe!